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AIG

2000

2002

2005

Safety and Security

Full datasets for each sub-sub-category are linked to in the text below
and at the foot of this page.

Without Safety and Security, good governance and the provision of all political goods, is impossible. Being safe and secure, in other words, is a prime political good. Security refers to a nation-state’s monopoly of violence. If there are insurgencies within the state, violence against the regime in power, or rebellions against authority, the nation-state is neither safe nor secure for its people. Likewise, if the state is invaded from outside or has porous borders, the government of the nation-state cannot provide, as nation-states are mandated to do, a safe and secure environment for the pursuit of individual or group endeavors within the nation-state. Nation-states that are unable to meet these tests of safety and security are failed or collapsed states. Others, where the supply of these political goods is weak or questionable, are weak or failing nation-states. Strong nation-states do not exhibit such problems. 1

Nor are the citizens of a modern nation-state safe or secure if the government in power cannot guarantee their personal security. Citizens demand to be free of mugging, car jacking, violent crime, and homicide. Thus, personal security is the second major component of the political good of safety and security. Countries with lower crime rates are supplying greater quantities and qualities of the safety segment of the political good of safety and security than those states where crime is rampant. In order to disaggregate this critical and overarching political good, the Index of African Governance analyzes a nation-state’s National Security and its Public Safety and weights each of the two sub-categories two-thirds and one-third, respectively, in a total country score for the category of Safety and Security. There are seven critical sub-sub-categories (SSCs) which are measured to create each national profile.

National Security

1. The number of armed conflicts in which a government is involved during that year and in which there are at least twenty-five battle-related deaths.2 Adapted from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) and International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) “Armed Conflict Dataset (V.4-2006, 1946-2005).”

2. Intensity of the violent conflicts in the country in that year, expressed in terms of the number of battle-related deaths. For 2002 and 2005, our estimate of the number of battle-related deaths is based on the Uppsala Conflict Data Program’s “UCDP Battle-Deaths Dataset, v.4.1, 2002-2005” and “UCDP Non-State Conflict Dataset, v.1.1, 2002 - 2005.” Our figure includes the number of battle-related deaths due to armed conflicts in which the government is involved, as well as those due to organized conflicts involving non-state actors. These data are not available for 2000, so our 2000 figures are based on the number of battle-related deaths due to armed conflicts involving the government only. They are scored based on five ranges: 0 to 25 battle-related deaths; 26 to 999; 1,000 to 9,999; 10,000 to 99,999; and over 100,000. These data are drawn from the UCDP/PRIO “Armed Conflict Dataset (V.4- 2006, 1946-2005).”

3 The number of deaths due to intentional attacks on civilians by governments or formally-organized armed groups. The best estimate is given for all episodes of violence that result in at least 25 deaths, based on the “UCDP One-Sided Violence Dataset, v.1.2 1989 – 2005."3

4. Refugees and asylum seekers originating from each country, based on the UNHCR’s Statistical Online Population Database (2007).4 The Index presents figures on both the absolute number of refugees and asylum seekers and the number of refugees and asylum seekers per 100,000 inhabitants, the figure upon which the scaled scores are based. Population figures are from the World Development Indicators.

5. Internally displaced persons (IDPs), based on the U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI)’s World Refugee Survey (2001 to 2007 editions), and data from the “IDP Database” of the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). The UNHCR’s Statistical Online Population Database is not used for IDP numbers because it includes only IDPs who are protected or assisted by the UNHCR. The Index presents figures on both the absolute number of IDPs and the number of IDPs per 100,000 inhabitants. The latter is used to calculate the scaled scores for each country.

6. Ease of access to small arms and light weapons on a 1 to 5 scale where 1 is least accessible, from coding done by the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) for the Global Peace Index 2007, supplemented by our coding for countries not included in the EIU estimates. The EIU coding is based on estimates by EIU analysts. These figures were published for the first time in 2007; estimates for 2000, 2002, and 2005 (that take into account possible variation over time) are not available. These data may differ from some estimates for various African countries and years that are available from key sources such as the Small Arms Survey, located at the Graduate Institute of International Studies, Geneva, Switzerland (http://www.smallarmssurvey.org/) and the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)’s Armed Conflict Database. 5

Public Safety

1. Level of violent crime, this year (2007) defined as homicides only, rated on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is least violent, least deadly. Our numbers are adapted from coding estimates on rates of homicide in 2002 and 2004 done by the Economist Intelligence Unit for the Global Peace Index 2007 (see the notes for more information on the coding). Additional scores are based on estimates using direct data gathered by ourselves in several countries and from the United Nations Surveys on Crime Trends and the Operation of Criminal Justice Systems (7th, 8th, and 9th surveys).6 Values still missing are estimated to be at the average, as described in more detail in the notes on this SSC. The UN Surveys on Crime Trends compile some relevant data from countries, but the coverage for sub-Saharan Africa is poor overall. Only ten countries are covered (often incompletely) for at least one year since 2000.7 The International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) previously reported data for many African countries on homicides and other categories of crime, but such figures have not been publicly available since 1999.8 In 2006, Interpol resolved to discontinue the production of crime statistics, citing problems with the accuracy and reliability of the data.9

Notes and datasets for sub-sub-categories in Safety and Security

  1. The number of armed conflicts in which a government is involved during that year
  2. Intensity of the violent conflicts in the country in that year
  3. The number of deaths due to intentional attacks on civilians by governments or formally-organized armed groups
  4. Refugees and asylum seekers originating from each country
  5. Internally displaced persons (IDPs)
  6. Ease of access to small arms and light weapons
  7. Level of violent crime

1 See the extended argument in Robert I. Rotberg (ed.), When States Fail: Causes and Consequences (Princeton, 2004).

2 The “armed conflicts” counted here follow UCDP’s definition of “a contested incompatibility that concerns government and/or territory where the use of armed force between two parties, of which at least one is the government of a state, results in at least 25 battle-related deaths” (from “UCDP/PRIO Armed Conflict Dataset Codebook – Version 4-2006,” 4).

3 Deaths due to extrajudicial killing are not included here.

4 Last accessed 25 July 2007.

5 Data on weapons stockpiles are available only for some countries and years. The Armed Conflict Database also includes information on the types of weapons held by non-state combatants. The Small Arms Survey provides additional information on prevention and monitoring efforts.

6 For details, see the notes on this SSC.

7 For the period since 2000, some crime figures are available for Cote d’Ivoire, Ethiopia, Mauritius, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.

8 See International Criminal Police Organization, Statistiques criminelles internationales. International crime statistics (Saint-Cloud, France, Secrétariat général de l’O.I.P.C.-Interpol). The 1998 and 1999 editions together cover fewer than half of the forty-eight sub-Saharan African countries. The 1999 report covers Angola, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Ghana, Lesotho, Mauritania, Mauritius, Namibia, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe (fifteen countries). The 1998 report covers eight additional countries: Benin, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Djibouti, Mali, Niger, and Uganda.

9 Interpol - General Assembly, “75th Interpol General Assembly - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 19 - 22 September 2006” (Resolution No AG-2006-RES-19).