Domestic Armed Conflict

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Domestic Armed Conflict
Indicator name at source (if different): Domestic Armed Conflict (both internal conflict and/or civil war, but excluding cross-border conflict)
Data provider: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Data source: Commissioned Data
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG): 2006-2008
Website: www.eiu.com

Definition of the indicator:

An expert assessment of the level of domestic armed conflict existing in a country, or of the likelihood of conflict developing in the near future. Domestic armed conflict is defined as internal conflict and/or civil war, but excludes cross-border conflict. Types and levels of conflict in a country are: no conflict with a low risk of conflict developing; sporadic conflict (isolated outbreaks of opposition violence despite firm government control); incursional conflict (firm government control with frequent armed incursions by the opposition); and territorial conflict (opposition has effective control over a region or regions).

Technical notes:

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 100 with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best score possible.

• The years stated in the EIU-commissioned data reflect performance in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

• Data are not available for 2001-2005 and have been estimated using mean substitution and/or extrapolation.

Government Involvement in Armed Conflict

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Government Involvement in Armed Conflict
Data provider: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Data source: Coded by The Mo Ibrahim Foundation using UCDP’s Armed Conflict Dataset v4-2009
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG): 2001-2008
Website: http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/index.htm

Definition of the indicator:

An expert assessment of whether the government is party to armed conflict. Armed conflict is defined as an incompatibility between two sides in which the use of armed force results in 25 or more battle deaths in a year. Government involvement can either be as a primary party to the incompatibility, or as a secondary party, which shares the incompatibility with one of the primary parties in the conflict and actively supports them with troops.

For details of the methodology, please see Technical Notes and:

http://www.pcr.uu.se/publications/UCDP_pub/Codebook_UCDP_PRIO%20Armed%20Conflict%20Dataset%20v4_2009.pdf

Technical notes:

• This indicator has been scored by the IIAG team using UCDP’s Armed Conflict Dataset.

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 5, with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best score possible.

• The years stated in the ‘Armed Conflict Dataset v4’ reflect figures in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

Coding of Indicator

• The data have been coded by the IIAG team on the following basis:

• Primary Party: If a government was involved as a ‘Primary Party’ in an Armed Conflict in either Interstate (Government vs. Government) or Intrastate (Government vs. in country group), then the country was given a score of 2. If a Government was involved as a ‘Primary Party’ in more than one conflict in a given year, then these primary involvements were added together to obtain the final score for this component.

• Secondary Party: If a Government was involved as a ‘secondary party’ in an armed conflict (either on side A or Side B), either in an interstate or intrastate conflict, then the country was given a score of 1. If a Government was involved as a ‘Secondary Party’ in more than one conflict in a given year, then these secondary involvements were added together to obtain the final score in this component.

• Scores from Primary and Secondary Involvement in Armed Conflict were then added together for all years, and were subsequently normalised.

Battle deaths (civilian and combatants)

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Battle Deaths (Civilian and Combatants)
Indicator name at source (if different): Battle-Related Deaths (Best Estimate); Non-State Conflict (Best Estimate)
Data provider: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Data source: UCDP Database: Battle Deaths and Non-State Conflict
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG): 2001-2008
Website: http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/index.htm

Definition of the Indicator:

An expert assessment of the number of battle deaths resulting from war, minor conflict and non-state violence, based on verifiable data. Although targets may often be the military and its installations or state institutions and representatives, there is often substantial collateral damage such as civilians being killed in crossfire or indiscriminate bombings. All deaths - military as well as civilian - incurred in such situations, are counted as battle-related deaths.

For details of the methodology, please see technical notes and:

http://www.pcr.uu.se/publications/UCDP_pub/UCDP%20Battle-related%20deaths%20dataset%20codebook%20v5%202009.pdf
and
http://www.pcr.uu.se/publications/UCDP_pub/UCDP%20Non-state%20conflict%20Dataset%20Codebook%20v2.1.pdf

Technical notes:

• To obtain the raw data for this indicator the total ‘best estimates’ of battle deaths, figures for ‘battle deaths’ in war and minor conflict and ‘non-state violence’ were added together. The raw data were then transformed using the total country population, to calculate the number of battle deaths per 100,000 people. Population data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) online.

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 49.1, with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best score possible.

• The years stated in the UCDP database reflect figures in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to the 2007/08 in the IIAG.

• Data for 2000/2001 has not been used as per advice from the source.

Outliers:

This is one of the 10 indicators that were fixed for outliers in the Ibrahim Index.  Analysis indicated that there were extreme values that needed to be filtered so that the results would not be unduly influenced by those extreme values.

The filter fix was as follows:

• All observations that lie more than 2.5 trimmed standard deviations from the trimmed mean are replaced with: trimmed mean + 2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the right tail, and trimmed mean -2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the left tail.
• The trimmed moments are computed on the 95% central part of the distribution (i.e. removing the bottom 2.5% and top 2.5%).

Civilian Deaths from Civilian-Targeted Violence

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Civilian Deaths from Civilian-Targeted Violence
Indicator name at source (if different): One-Sided Violence (Best Estimate)
Data provider: Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP)
Data source: UCDP Database: One-Sided Violence
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index for African Governance (IIAG): 2001-2008
Website: http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/index.htm

Definition of the indicator:

An expert assessment of the number of civilian deaths that occur from the use of armed force by the government of a state or by a formally organised group, targeted specifically at civilians and which results in at least 25 deaths in a year. Extrajudicial killings in custody are excluded.

For details of the methodology, please see technical notes and:

http://www.pcr.uu.se/publications/UCDP_pub/UCDP%20One-sided%20violence%20Dataset%20Codebook%20v1.3.pdf

Technical notes:

• To obtain the raw data for this indicator the total ‘best estimates’ of civilian deaths were transformed using the total country population to calculate the number of civilian deaths per 100,000 people. Population data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) online.

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 0.8, with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the raw data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best possible score.

• The years stated in the UCDP database reflect figures in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

Outliers:

This is one of the 10 indicators that were fixed for outliers in the Ibrahim Index.  Analysis indicated that there were extreme values that needed to be filtered so that the results would not be unduly influenced by those extreme values.

The filter fix was as follows:

• All observations that lie more than 2.5 trimmed standard deviations from the trimmed mean are replaced with: trimmed mean + 2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the right tail, and trimmed mean -2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the left tail.
• The trimmed moments are computed on the 95% central part of the distribution (i.e. removing the bottom 2.5% and top 2.5%).

Refugees from the Country

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Refugees from the Country
Indicator name at source (if different): Refugees
Data provider: United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR)
Data source:UNHCR Statistical Online Population Database
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG): 2001-2008
Website: http://www.unhcr.org/pages/4a013eb06.html

Definition of the indicator:

Official data measuring the number of refugees originating from a country based on data from governmental agencies, UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) offices and non-governmental organisations.

For details of the methodology, please see technical notes and:

 http://www.unhcr.org/45c06c662.html

Technical notes:

• Estimates of absolute numbers of refugees were transformed to estimates per 100,000 using total population figures for each country. Population data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) online.

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0.1 to 3284.9, with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best possible score.

• The years stated in the UNHCR statistical online population database reflects figures in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

Outliers:

This is one of the 10 indicators that were “fixed” for outliers in the IIAG. Analysis indicated that there were extreme values that needed to be filtered so that the results would not be unduly influenced by those extreme values.

The filter fix was as follows:

• All observations that lie more than 2.5 trimmed standard deviations from the trimmed mean are replaced with: trimmed mean + 2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the right tail, and trimmed mean -2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the left tail.
• The trimmed moments are computed on the 95% central part of the distribution (i.e. removing the bottom 2.5% and top 2.5%).

Internally Displaced Persons

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: Internally Displaced Persons
Data provider: Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC); U.S. Committee for Refugees and Immigrants (USCRI)
Data source:  ‘Internal displacement: A Global Overview of Trends and Development’ (IDMC); Country Specific Internally Displaced Profile Reports (IDMC); World Refugee Survey (USCRI)
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG):
IDMC ‘Internal Displacement: A Global Overview of Trends and Development’ (2003-2008)
IDMC ‘Country Specific Internally Displaced Profile Reports’ (2001-2008)
USCRI ‘World Refugee Survey’ (2002-2004)
Websites:
http://www.internal-displacement.org/
and
http://www.refugees.org/article.aspx?id=2324&subm=179&area=About%20Refugees

Definition of the indicator:

Official data estimating the absolute numbers of internally displaced persons (IDPs), including those displaced within and outside camps.

For details of the methodology, please see technical notes and:

http://www.internal-displacement.org/idp
and
http://www.refugees.org/FTP/WRS09PDFS/RefuandAsylumseek.pdf

Technical notes:

• Data were collected on the basis of a calendar year.

• If there was more than one estimate of IDP numbers in a calendar year then the later estimate was used.

• If the only estimate available was a range, the figure used was the average of the two figures given.

• USCRI data were used if no figure or range was available from IDMC reports.

• An ‘..’ value means that IDMC or USCRI reported internally displaced persons in that country for that year, but a reliable estimate was not available.

• Absolute estimates of internally displaced persons were then transformed to estimates per 100,000 using total population figures for each country. Population data were obtained from the World Development Indicators (WDI) online.

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 5,600.05, with a low score being best, and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best score possible.

• The years stated in IDMC reports reflect figures from that same year. The USCRI ‘World Refugee Survey’ publication reflects data for the previous year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

Outliers:

This is one of the 10 indicators that were fixed for outliers in the Ibrahim Index.  Analysis indicated that there were extreme values that needed to be filtered so that the results would not be unduly influenced by those extreme values.

The filter fix was as follows:

• All observations that lie more than 2.5 trimmed standard deviations from the trimmed mean are replaced with: trimmed mean + 2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the right tail, and trimmed mean -2.6 trimmed standard deviations if they are in the left tail.
• The trimmed moments are computed on the 95% central part of the distribution (i.e. removing the bottom 2.5% and top 2.5%).

International Tensions

CATEGORY: Safety and Rule of Law
Sub-category: National Security
Indicator name: International Tensions
Indicator name at source (if different): Presence of Cross-Border Tensions that could lead to Conflict or Sanctions
Data provider: The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)
Data source: Commissioned Data
Publication years used in the Ibrahim Index of African Governance (IIAG): 2006-2008
Website: www.eiu.com

Definition of the indicator:

An expert assessment of the potential threat to a country’s economic and political stability posed by the presence of international cross-border tensions which have the potential to lead to conflict or sanctions.

Technical notes:

• This indicator’s raw data range from 0 to 100, with a low score being best and a high score being worst. To produce the IIAG score, the data were normalised using the Min-Max method to transform them to a scale of 0 to 100, where 100 is always the best score possible.

• The years stated in the EIU-commissioned data reflect performance in that same year. The latest available data are for 2008, which correspond to 2007/08 in the IIAG.

• Data are not available for 2001-2005 and have been estimated using mean substitution and/or extrapolation.